关于最新美国移民法案的一些观点(转)

10,970 个浏览

大A最近实在是太忙啦,美国移民法案一直在搞这搞那,搞得很多派对中的F4亲属忐忑不安,大A很想写点什么,但是实在是太忙,今天看到一篇文章,不晓得出自哪位朋友之手,
仔细阅读了一下,大A支持这位同仁的分析,所以也在这里分享给大家,

首先明确一下美国立法的大致顺序:
立提案-审议通过允许投票-参议院投票-众议院投票(或反过来,先众议院投,再参议院投)-送达总统签字-生效。

由于近期谣言不断,这里特澄清一下移民改革目前的状况,以及可能对我们造成的影响。

1.主张这次移民改革的是奥巴马(隶属民主党),而参议院为民主党势力掌控,众议院为共和党势力掌控。共和党主张严惩非法移民,不支持大赦,民主党则怜悯非法移民,主张将他们宽大处理。

2. 目前参议院已经投票通过CIR法案,即移民改革一篮子法案,对亲属移民总体利好。虽然将在18个月后停止F4申请,但已经排队的申请他们会加速处理。而众议院的头目(共和党首领)对CIR极为不满,认为他们在边境安全的问题上不够完善,因此已经多次明确表示“不会将参议院通过的任何法案拿来投票,我们要起早自己的法案”。

3. 因而,众议院现在搞piecemeal策略,因为他们不想让非法移民合法,于是现在他们立法的策略是把移民改革拆分成一个一个小的法案。这两天疯传的“F4一刀切全部取消”源自他们第一部关于高科技移民的法案HR 2131, 这个法案目前只是起草完成,甚至在众议院都还没有投票。他们的策略是一点一点通过小法案,然后再跟参议院去谈判,企图撇开非法移民。但奥巴马已经明确表示,众议院这样搞的话,他什么法案也不会签。所以众议院这边即使投票通过多项小法案,也难以在参议院和奥巴马这里过关。即使F4一刀切成为现实,新闻报道也说了会有一段缓冲期,已经申请并批准的案件不会受到影响。

4. 美国政坛勾心斗角明争暗斗丝毫不弱于国内,众议院现在明显是跟奥巴马和民主党对着干。前阵子他们投票通过了一个法案,要抓捕驱逐所有非法移民,明摆着是跟民主党和奥巴马叫板。即使知道这种法案根本不可能通过,他们这样搞的目的就是给奥巴马颜色看,表明自己的立场。目前来看两党两院在移民改革上分歧很大,最后很有可能的结果就是改革失败,一切照旧,什么法案都通不过。

综上所述,我觉得这次移民改革的可能结果是:

失败,一切照旧,无变化 (70%)

参议院CIR通过 (20%)

众议院Piecemeal小法案通过(5%)

两党协商,各有妥协,推出其他法案(5%)

若是改革失败,则现有的排期进度和移民法仍将继续保持不变

PS:最后的几率 可能大A的想法不大一样,但是中间说的:道理还是很对的~

原创文章,版权所有。转载请注明:转载自熊猫美国签证 [ http://www.usaqianzheng.com ],违者必究。

48 个评论 (+我也要评论!)

  1. download
    二 01, 2021 @ 08:32:04

    I have learn some just right stuff here. Certainly value bookmarking for revisiting. I wonder how so much effort you set to make the sort of wonderful informative website. Friederike Chrotoem Spohr

  2. watch series online
    二 01, 2021 @ 10:19:34

    You made some decent points there. I checked on the web for more information about the issue and found most individuals will go along with your views on this site. Juanita Leslie Cerf

  3. movie online
    二 02, 2021 @ 02:12:00

    Thanks for the sensible critique. Me & my neighbor were just preparing to do some research about this. We got a grab a book from our area library but I think I learned more from this post. I am very glad to see such fantastic info being shared freely out there. Farica Hamel Henrik

  4. online
    二 02, 2021 @ 03:59:34

    Thank you so much for providing individuals with an extraordinarily memorable opportunity to discover important secrets from here. It is usually very nice and also packed with a lot of fun for me personally and my office co-workers to search your site on the least three times per week to find out the new issues you have. And definitely, I am certainly astounded with the astonishing inspiring ideas you give. Selected 1 points in this article are rather the most effective I have had. Timmi Hersh Herod

  5. online
    二 02, 2021 @ 08:12:20

    Fourteen out of seventeen of all those men nowadays these days are North Queenslanders. Simona Lemmie Doubler

  6. movies
    二 02, 2021 @ 09:19:05

    Muchos Gracias for your article post. Much obliged. Malorie Eldredge Howey

  7. mp3
    二 08, 2021 @ 14:17:39

    The cleaning business carries out cleansing of spaces of various dimensions and setups. Amitie Bradford Woodhouse

  8. diziler
    二 09, 2021 @ 07:50:48

    Hello, I think your website might be having browser compatibility issues. When I look at your blog in Chrome, it looks fine but when opening in Internet Explorer, it has some overlapping. I just wanted to give you a quick heads up! Other then that, amazing blog! Dehlia Linoel Tirza

  9. diziler
    二 09, 2021 @ 09:37:44

    Really informative article post. Really looking forward to read more. Will read on Charmion Gardner Jorry

  10. altyazili
    二 10, 2021 @ 11:55:58

    As soon as I discovered this website I went on reddit to share some of the love with them. Andrea Morten Borchers

  11. best Headache meds
    二 11, 2021 @ 13:43:35

    Thanks for your suggestions. One thing I’ve noticed is the fact that banks as well as financial institutions really know the spending routines of consumers as well as understand that many people max away their own credit cards around the vacations. They sensibly take advantage of this particular fact and begin flooding your own inbox as well as snail-mail box along with hundreds of Zero APR credit card offers right after the holiday season finishes. Knowing that if you’re like 98% of all American open public, you’ll leap at the opportunity to consolidate credit debt and move balances to 0 annual percentage rates credit cards. eeeedgj https://headachemedi.com – best Headache meds

  12. tension headache meds
    二 14, 2021 @ 18:29:27

    Thanks for your thoughts. One thing I’ve got noticed is the fact banks in addition to financial institutions understand the spending behaviors of consumers and as well understand that the majority of people max out and about their cards around the breaks. They smartly take advantage of that fact and then start flooding ones inbox in addition to snail-mail box having hundreds of no interest APR credit cards offers shortly after the holiday season concludes. Knowing that for anyone who is like 98% in the American general public, you’ll soar at the possible opportunity to consolidate consumer credit card debt and switch balances towards 0 interest rate credit cards. mllkkmn https://headachemedi.com – tension headache meds

  13. what is the treatment of hypothyroidism
    二 15, 2021 @ 06:48:40

    Thanks for your concepts. One thing we’ve noticed is banks along with financial institutions are aware of the spending practices of consumers while also understand that most of the people max out and about their real credit cards around the getaways. They properly take advantage of this specific fact and commence flooding your current inbox along with snail-mail box using hundreds of no-interest APR card offers just after the holiday season concludes. Knowing that should you be like 98% of American community, you’ll rush at the possible opportunity to consolidate card debt and shift balances for 0 apr interest rates credit cards. kjjiikm https://thyroidmedi.com – what is the treatment of hypothyroidism

  14. stomach drugs over the counter
    二 15, 2021 @ 23:30:28

    Thanks for your ideas. One thing I have noticed is that banks and financial institutions know the spending habits of consumers and understand that most people max out their credit cards around the holidays. They wisely take advantage of this fact and start flooding your inbox and snail-mail box with hundreds of 0 APR credit card offers soon after the holiday season ends. Knowing that if you are like 98% of the American public, you’ll jump at the chance to consolidate credit card debt and transfer balances to 0 APR credit cards. cccccei https://stomachmedi.com – stomach drugs over the counter

  15. stomach medications for acid reflux
    二 16, 2021 @ 18:23:31

    Thanks for your thoughts. One thing I’ve got noticed is the fact banks in addition to financial institutions understand the spending behaviors of consumers and as well understand that the majority of people max out and about their real credit cards around the breaks. They smartly take advantage of that fact and commence flooding ones inbox in addition to snail-mail box having hundreds of no-interest APR credit cards offers shortly after the holiday season concludes. Knowing that for anyone who is like 98% of American community, you’ll soar at the possible opportunity to consolidate consumer credit card debt and shift balances towards 0 interest rate credit cards. kkkjiln https://pancreasmedi.com – stomach medications for acid reflux

  16. what to take for kidney pain
    二 17, 2021 @ 15:48:05

    As a Newbie, I am continuously exploring online for articles that can be of assistance to me. Thank you

  17. best kidney medication
    二 17, 2021 @ 17:00:25

    As a Newbie, I am permanently exploring online for articles that can benefit me. Thank you

  18. accenuinc
    三 14, 2021 @ 16:36:39

    http://hcialischeapc.com/ – can you buy cialis online

  19. JaneHaize
    三 18, 2021 @ 08:57:22

    Hey! I’m an aspiring porn actress. If you want to check it out, register here – https://cutt.ly/AlMd42z I’m there Jane Deep Throat ;)

  20. asmr https://0mniartist.tumblr.com
    四 10, 2021 @ 09:20:37

    Everyone loves it whenever people come together and share opinions.
    Great website, stick with it! asmr 0mniartist

  21. asmr https://0mniartist.tumblr.com
    四 11, 2021 @ 04:09:50

    I’ve been browsing online more than three hours today, yet
    I by no means found any fascinating article like yours.
    It is lovely worth sufficient for me. In my view, if
    all site owners and bloggers made just right content as you did, the internet
    shall be a lot more helpful than ever before.

    0mniartist asmr

  22. 0mniartist
    四 12, 2021 @ 16:11:10

    What i do not understood is in reality how you’re not really a lot
    more neatly-preferred than you might be right now. You are so intelligent.

    You realize thus considerably in the case of
    this subject, produced me in my opinion believe it from so many numerous angles.
    Its like men and women aren’t fascinated except it is one thing to do with Lady gaga!
    Your own stuffs excellent. At all times care for it up!
    0mniartist asmr

  23. bitly.com
    四 14, 2021 @ 11:18:51

    Howdy! This is my 1st comment here so I just wanted to give a quick
    shout out and tell you I really enjoy reading through your articles.
    Can you recommend any other blogs/websites/forums that
    go over the same topics? Thanks a ton! asmr 0mniartist

  24. bitly.com
    四 16, 2021 @ 02:41:28

    This excellent website definitely has all of the information I wanted about this subject and didn’t know who
    to ask. asmr 0mniartist

  25. gamefly why
    四 28, 2021 @ 01:53:31

    First off I would like to say terrific blog! I had a quick
    question which I’d like to ask if you do not mind.
    I was curious to find out how you center yourself and clear your mind before writing.

    I’ve had a tough time clearing my thoughts in getting my ideas out.

    I do take pleasure in writing however it just seems like the first 10 to 15 minutes
    tend to be wasted just trying to figure out how to begin. Any suggestions or tips?
    Appreciate it!

  26. the asmr
    四 28, 2021 @ 21:42:10

    These are really fantastic ideas in concerning
    blogging. You have touched some good points here.

    Any way keep up wrinting.

  27. asmr our
    四 29, 2021 @ 01:22:07

    Thanks very interesting blog!

  28. with asmr
    四 29, 2021 @ 16:42:13

    I for all time emailed this website post page to
    all my associates, since if like to read it afterward my friends will too.

  29. gamefly my
    五 04, 2021 @ 01:51:55

    Its like you learn my mind! You appear to know a lot about
    this, such as you wrote the e-book in it or something.
    I believe that you simply can do with a few percent to
    pressure the message home a little bit, but instead
    of that, this is excellent blog. A fantastic read.

    I will definitely be back.

  30. asmr are
    五 04, 2021 @ 07:18:29

    Howdy! This is my 1st comment here so I just wanted to give a quick shout out and say I really enjoy reading through your blog
    posts. Can you recommend any other blogs/websites/forums that go
    over the same subjects? Thanks a ton!

  31. http://j.mp/
    五 07, 2021 @ 08:27:55

    I visited several web pages except the audio quality for audio songs current at this site
    is truly fabulous.

  32. that asmr
    五 08, 2021 @ 12:35:30

    Thanks to my father who stated to me on the topic of this webpage, this blog is in fact amazing.

  33. for asmr
    五 09, 2021 @ 11:35:21

    Fine way of describing, and nice piece of writing to
    obtain facts on the topic of my presentation focus, which i am going to convey
    in institution of higher education.

  34. j.mp
    五 15, 2021 @ 09:30:02

    scoliosis
    I’m not sure why but this blog is loading extremely slow for me.

    Is anyone else having this issue or is it a problem on my end?
    I’ll check back later on and see if the problem still exists.
    scoliosis

  35. http://tinyurl.com/
    五 16, 2021 @ 12:45:26

    scoliosis
    Hi are using WordPress for your blog platform?
    I’m new to the blog world but I’m trying to get started and
    set up my own. Do you require any html coding knowledge to make your own blog?
    Any help would be greatly appreciated! scoliosis

  36. bit.ly
    五 19, 2021 @ 13:12:20

    scoliosis
    Do you have a spam issue on this website; I also am a blogger, and I was curious about your situation; many of us have developed
    some nice procedures and we are looking to exchange solutions with other
    folks, be sure to shoot me an e-mail if interested. scoliosis

  37. https://785days.tumblr.com/
    五 19, 2021 @ 22:06:41

    free dating sites
    This post presents clear idea designed for the
    new users of blogging, that truly how to do blogging and site-building.
    https://785days.tumblr.com/ dating sites

  38. https://6869milesoflove.tumblr.com/
    五 20, 2021 @ 16:28:56

    dating sites
    Do you have any video of that? I’d like to find out some additional information. dating sites

  39. asmr when
    五 21, 2021 @ 11:31:48

    Right here is the right site for anybody who hopes to understand this topic.

    You realize so much its almost hard to argue with you (not that I really will need to…HaHa).
    You certainly put a fresh spin on a subject that’s been discussed for years.
    Excellent stuff, just great!

  40. why dating sites
    五 26, 2021 @ 04:20:09

    Hello would you mind letting me know which hosting company you’re
    utilizing? I’ve loaded your blog in 3 different internet browsers and I must
    say this blog loads a lot faster then most.
    Can you recommend a good web hosting provider
    at a honest price? Thanks a lot, I appreciate
    it!

  41. what dating sites
    五 26, 2021 @ 04:51:06

    Just desire to say your article is as astounding.
    The clarity to your post is just nice and that i can think you’re an expert in this subject.
    Well along with your permission allow me to grasp your feed
    to stay up to date with approaching post. Thank you one
    million and please keep up the rewarding work.

  42. dating sites there
    五 29, 2021 @ 08:16:02

    Today, I went to the beach front with my children. I found a sea shell and
    gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said “You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.” She
    put the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it
    pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this
    is entirely off topic but I had to tell someone!

  43. but surgery scoliosis
    五 30, 2021 @ 11:24:24

    What’s up every one, here every person is sharing such experience, so
    it’s pleasant to read this webpage, and I used to go to see this webpage all the time.

  44. scoliosis but
    五 31, 2021 @ 02:50:47

    I do agree with all of the ideas you’ve introduced
    in your post. They are really convincing and can definitely work.
    Still, the posts are very short for starters. Could you please extend them a bit from next time?
    Thank you for the post.

  45. their dating sites
    五 31, 2021 @ 09:55:57

    Hi there just wanted to give you a quick heads up and let you know
    a few of the pictures aren’t loading correctly.
    I’m not sure why but I think its a linking issue. I’ve tried it
    in two different web browsers and both show the same outcome.

  46. what free dating sites
    六 01, 2021 @ 03:41:40

    I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting my own blog and was curious what
    all is required to get setup? I’m assuming having a blog
    like yours would cost a pretty penny? I’m not very internet savvy
    so I’m not 100% positive. Any tips or advice would be greatly appreciated.
    Thank you

  47. tinyurl.com
    六 01, 2021 @ 10:36:14

    Very descriptive post, I liked that a lot. Will there be a
    part 2?

  48. http://tinyurl.com
    六 02, 2021 @ 01:27:57

    This is the right web site for everyone who wishes to understand this topic.
    You understand so much its almost hard to argue with you (not that I
    really would want to…HaHa). You certainly put a new spin on a topic
    that has been written about for decades. Great stuff, just wonderful!

评论