关于最新美国移民法案的一些观点(转)

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大A最近实在是太忙啦,美国移民法案一直在搞这搞那,搞得很多派对中的F4亲属忐忑不安,大A很想写点什么,但是实在是太忙,今天看到一篇文章,不晓得出自哪位朋友之手,
仔细阅读了一下,大A支持这位同仁的分析,所以也在这里分享给大家,

首先明确一下美国立法的大致顺序:
立提案-审议通过允许投票-参议院投票-众议院投票(或反过来,先众议院投,再参议院投)-送达总统签字-生效。

由于近期谣言不断,这里特澄清一下移民改革目前的状况,以及可能对我们造成的影响。

1.主张这次移民改革的是奥巴马(隶属民主党),而参议院为民主党势力掌控,众议院为共和党势力掌控。共和党主张严惩非法移民,不支持大赦,民主党则怜悯非法移民,主张将他们宽大处理。

2. 目前参议院已经投票通过CIR法案,即移民改革一篮子法案,对亲属移民总体利好。虽然将在18个月后停止F4申请,但已经排队的申请他们会加速处理。而众议院的头目(共和党首领)对CIR极为不满,认为他们在边境安全的问题上不够完善,因此已经多次明确表示“不会将参议院通过的任何法案拿来投票,我们要起早自己的法案”。

3. 因而,众议院现在搞piecemeal策略,因为他们不想让非法移民合法,于是现在他们立法的策略是把移民改革拆分成一个一个小的法案。这两天疯传的“F4一刀切全部取消”源自他们第一部关于高科技移民的法案HR 2131, 这个法案目前只是起草完成,甚至在众议院都还没有投票。他们的策略是一点一点通过小法案,然后再跟参议院去谈判,企图撇开非法移民。但奥巴马已经明确表示,众议院这样搞的话,他什么法案也不会签。所以众议院这边即使投票通过多项小法案,也难以在参议院和奥巴马这里过关。即使F4一刀切成为现实,新闻报道也说了会有一段缓冲期,已经申请并批准的案件不会受到影响。

4. 美国政坛勾心斗角明争暗斗丝毫不弱于国内,众议院现在明显是跟奥巴马和民主党对着干。前阵子他们投票通过了一个法案,要抓捕驱逐所有非法移民,明摆着是跟民主党和奥巴马叫板。即使知道这种法案根本不可能通过,他们这样搞的目的就是给奥巴马颜色看,表明自己的立场。目前来看两党两院在移民改革上分歧很大,最后很有可能的结果就是改革失败,一切照旧,什么法案都通不过。

综上所述,我觉得这次移民改革的可能结果是:

失败,一切照旧,无变化 (70%)

参议院CIR通过 (20%)

众议院Piecemeal小法案通过(5%)

两党协商,各有妥协,推出其他法案(5%)

若是改革失败,则现有的排期进度和移民法仍将继续保持不变

PS:最后的几率 可能大A的想法不大一样,但是中间说的:道理还是很对的~

原创文章,版权所有。转载请注明:转载自熊猫美国签证 [ http://www.usaqianzheng.com ],违者必究。

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